ROBERT WOODS

2/20/22, 1:27 AM

Updated:

INJURY RISK

2022:

Long-Term:

3/5

3/5

Robert Woods coming off an ACL tear is being rated ~WR30 by most fantasy sites. What do we think about that?

(1) The first question is always when he’ll be back. Woods tore his ACL in November, meaning the 10-11 month average timeline would put him back in the game around mid-September. He says he’s on track for mini-camp, so it sounds like he’s going to be on the aggressive side with his return. Not an uncommon mentality for a WR nearing age 30.

(2) Second is production. WRs tend to dip in fantasy points during year 1, and then bounce back to baseline. The SportsMedAnalytics algorithm factors in combine metrics, age, and time from the injury to generate predictions that have been tested and re-optimized using data going back ~20 years. Unfortunately, it doesn’t love the outlook for Woods. His average combine percentile is ~40, he’s up there in age for an NFL wideout, and he’s going to start the season on the early side for returning players. Not exactly lined up for success.

(3) Third for us is team fit. Woods’s role is unthreatened with OBJ out for likely the whole year with an ACL re-tear. Sean McVay is an offensive genius, and Matthew Stafford is a stud. We saw Jared Goff improve in yards, completion percentage, and TDs from year 1 to 2 with McVay. With added familiarity, chances are that Stafford will have at least as successful of a statistical year as he did in ’21. This is the selling point on Woods.

But for us, it’s not enough to overcome the injury analytics. There’s a lot working against Woods here, and while we definitely expect him to return and contribute, his ceiling is not stellar. We agree with one of IG's highest-accuracy analysts - @fantasyfootball.therapist - who has Woods as a mid-WR3.

That ceiling isn’t going to be enough to justify taking him over the guys ranked nearby - Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Marquise Brown. So while we’ll be rooting for Woods - as we do for every player persevering through a major injury - we’re not looking to target him at all in fantasy drafts for 2022. Are you?

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