9/21/21, 6:22 PM
Chubb has played in every game of his pro career so far, but his 2015 knee injury could cause issues down the road. For 2021, this is not expected to alter his short-term performance trajectory or durability. However, the damage to his knee cartilage makes us cautious about committing to him long-term, as similar injuries have been associated with declines in both production and game participation for NFL players.
2020 - MCL sprain; missed 4 games
2015 - Left knee dislocation, multilligament injury (MCL, PCL, LCL + cartilage damage); treated with surgery
2014 - thumb fracture; treated with surgery
2018 - 16/16
2019 - 16/16
2020 - 12/16
Chubb has managed to stay relatively healthy throughout his NFL career so far. For the short-term, we therefore expect him to continue on his current performance trajectory.
Chubb’s severe knee injury from 2015 gives reason for long-term concerns about his health. He sustained a knee dislocation, injuring multiple ligaments and damaging the cartilage that protects the knee as a result. Based on his performance and consistent game participation so far, it seems unlikely that his has bothered him to date, and his 2020 MCL sprain was likely unrelated. However, it does have potential to become relevant again as he ages. Multiple studies suggests that cartilage injuries in the knee lead to decreased productivity and game participation in NFL data. Overall, his 2021 risk is NOT elevated, but we would opt for a similar player without this history in long-term leagues.
Image Source: Erik Drost, CC-BY-2.0