Chubb has played in every game of his pro career so far, but his 2015 knee injury could cause issues down the road. For 2020, this is not expected to alter his short-term performance trajectory or durability. However, the damage to his knee cartilage makes us cautious about committing to him long-term, as similar injuries have been associated with declines in both production and game participation for NFL players.
2015 - Left knee dislocation, multilligament injury (MCL, PCL, LCL + cartilage damage); treated with surgery
2014 - thumb fracture; treated with surgery
2018 - 16/16
2019 - 16/16
Chubb has managed to stay healthy throughout his NFL career so far. For the short-term, we therefore expect him to continue on his current performance trajectory.
Chubb’s severe knee injury from 2015 gives reason for long-term concerns about his health. He sustained a knee dislocation, injuring multiple ligaments and damaging the cartilage that protects the knee as a result. Based on his performance and consistent game participation so far, it seems unlikely that his has bothered him to date. However, it likely has potential to do so as he ages. If this were to occur, evidence from multiple studies suggests that cartilage injuries in the knee lead to decreased productivity and game participation. Overall, we don’t think his 2020 risk is elevated, but we would opt for a similar player without this history in long-term leagues.
Image Source: Erik Drost, CC-BY-2.0