Expect performance similar to Weeks 1-7, prior to Jacobs’s shoulder injury (107 yards on 0.7 touchdowns per game). Relatively low risk for his position, but even high-volume durable RBs miss 1.9 games per year.
2019 - Shoulder fracture (likely scapula) - sustained week 7; missed 3 games (Weeks 14, 16, 17)
2017 - Ankle fracture (1 game missed), treated with offseason surgery; Hamstring strain (2 games missed)
2019 - 13/16
Expect production comparable to Jacobs’s first 6 games of 2019, prior to sustaining a fracture to his shoulder. During that time, he averaged 107 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. He intermittently played well despite the fracture, but his pre-injury performance is likely most informative for this year’s projections.
Reports of Jacobs’s shoulder injury suggest a fracture that is expected to have healed fully by now, and should not substantially increase his risk. The nature of his 2017 ankle surgery is unclear, but the fact that he was cleared to play through the injury after evaluation by the team’s medical staff suggests that there was relatively low risk of sustaining serious long-term damage. Overall, low risk level relative to his position, but it’s worth noting that only ~50% of high-volume RBs will generally play every game in a season.
Image Source: June Rivera, CC-BY-SA-2.0