2/27/22, 6:21 PM
At ADP 24, do we want JK Dobbins? Yes absolutely. Here’s why:
(1) The position. If we’re going zero RB or taking a Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews early on, Dobbins is squarely in the territory where we want to target an RB. Yes, Stefon Diggs or AJ Brown could be a sexier pick, but RB falls off a cliff after Round 4 whereas WR remains deep long after.
(2) The ACL. There tends to be a dip in RB production for the first year back, BUT young age, high draft slot, and the fact that Dobbins got injured all the way back in August ’21 all should help soften the blow here.
(3) Elite athleticism. Dobbins didn’t run at the NFL combine, but coming out of high school had the highest SPARQ score of any prospect at his position. In the SMA algorithm, this plus age are the best predictors of RB productivity recovering smoothly.
Look for a strong showing from Dobbins. His rookie year ended with ~1000 total yards and 9 TDs. With Lamar coming off an injury-plagued season, the Ravens are expected to commit more strongly to the ground game. Dobbins as a young 3-down back with star potential is exactly what we’re hoping for from a 3rd round fantasy draft pick.
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