We recommend using Adams’s Weeks 14-17 and playoff performances - after he was likely fully healed from his turf toe injury - to set expectations for his productivity in 2020. During these 6 games, he averaged 108 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. While we expect a healthy start to 2020, evidence suggests that turf toe can continue to cause symptoms even 5 years removed from the injury, so our long-term concern is elevated relative to his position.
2019 - Turf toe (Week 4; 4 games missed)
2018 - Right knee (likely sprain; Week 16; missed 1 game)
2017 - Concussion x2 (missed 2 games)
2016 - Concussion (no games missed)
2015 - Ankle sprain (missed 3 games)
2019 - 12/16
2018 - 15/16
2017 - 14/16
2016 - 16/16
2015 - 13/16
2014 - 16/16
Adams came back in Week 10 of 2019 after missing 4 games due to his turf toe injury. However, we suspect that the injury may have affected production in his initial return, as this type of tissue healing generally takes 6-8 weeks. Therefore, we’d recommend using Week 14 onwards to set expectations for 2020. During this 6 game stretch (including 2 playoff games), Adams averaged 108 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game.
Medical data tells us that having a concussion history makes a player more likely to sustain another, but Adams hasn’t been affected by these in ~2 years, so we believe this doesn’t substantially increase his risk. Regarding his toe, evidence suggests that this could become a nagging issue down the line. One study showed differences in pressures and motion seen by toes that have had this injury, and another found that 50% of athletes with prior turf toe had persistent symptoms even ~5 years after the initial injury. While we expect him to start 2020 at full strength, having had plenty of time to heal up, we have moderate level of concern that the toe injury may not stay entirely in his rear-view mirror.
Image Source: Keith Allison, CC-BY-SA-2.0