2/19/22, 9:57 PM
Analysts are all over the map on Chris Godwin coming off of ACL and MCL tears to his knee. Respected writers have him as high as WR7 and as low as WR30. So what’s the move? Consider this:
(1) The timing of his return. Godwin had surgery in January. NFL players average 10-11 months to return, and WRs tend to fall on the higher end of that timeline because sharp cutting and explosive jumping require the most strength from that knee. Optimistically that’s a mid-October return to play.
(2) The ACL performance dip. Natwa @fantasydocs talks about this a lot, and data proves that it’s real. Year 1 for WRs tends to be hard, at least in their first games back. We see decreased production that bounces back to baseline by year 2 (sooner for some of the elite players). OBJ was a perfect example of this (before his re-tear in the Super Bowl).
(3) Athleticism. Godwin is tremendously productive, but we’re analyzing the athlete separate from the overall player here. Metrics at the combine measure Godwin athletically at 80th percentile, just a few behind OBJ. The SportsMedAnalytics algorithm predicts the recovery of his stats on the relatively early side for his position.
Putting it all together, we’re predicting Godwin back in mid-October, but not giving us full-strength results until mid-November. He certainly could be a difference-maker by the time fantasy football playoffs roll around, but there’s no chance we’d take him over DeAndre Hopkins, Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson, or Tyler Lockett. It’s even hard to justify Godwin over Brandin Cooks, Hunter Renfrow, and Jerry Jeudy. For us, WR 35 - over Brandon Aiyuk and Christian Kirk - is where we’d pull the trigger on Godwin.
Stud player who will likely return to stud form, but not early enough for fantasy owners. Where would you take him?
Photo Credit: Ken Murray, Icon Sportswire