Bottom line: Expect to be ready at or near start of season. Data suggests decline in performance and games played over the next few years. However, data is limited in quarterbacks and doesn’t account for potential stylistic changes to his game.
Injury: Lisfranc (foot injury)
Date of Injury: 8/22/19
Date of Surgery: 12/11/19
Analysis in Detail:
Return to Play
Return rate after Lisfranc injury in NFL players is 83-93%. Average time 10-11 months, with 2-3 months standard deviation. Based on most recent reports, Newton passed his physical and is on track to return at or near the start of the season.
Performance decline of average 21% for was seen in one NFL study, but another didn’t see the same trend. Limited data on quarterbacks is available. The impact of Newton’s injury on his performance will also likely be affected by his style of play, specifically on how much he decides to run versus stay in the pocket.
Career length is unchanged, but players average fewer games played in the first 2-3 seasons after injury.
Image Source: Tammy Anthony Baker, CC BY 2.0