7/5/21, 9:17 PM
Bottom Line: AJ Brown should contend for best WR in the league this year, but offseason knee surgery gives major cause for concern in dynasty leagues.
Return to Play:
After surgery on both knees in January, Brown should be ready to play well before the start of the upcoming season.
Expect Brown to continue on his trajectory towards being a top 10 WR. Surgery won’t hold him back in the near future.
Here’s where we have concerns. His knee surgeries were almost certainly done to treat injury to the cartilage or meniscus, both of which are protective structures in the knee. NFL data is pretty convincing that athletes with such injuries will play fewer games and have shorter careers. In fact, the same trends hold up in NBA data as well, which further strengthens the conclusion.
In Brown’s specific case, he played through the knee injuries for almost an entire season. This means he probably made the affected areas larger, and while surgery attempts to restore them as much as possible, it’s nearly impossible to fully undo the damage.
Durability isn’t expected to impact him this season, so we’re comfortably drafting him in annual re-draft formats. However, as the wear and tear accumulates, his knees are likely to become limiting factors. As a result, we are looking to avoid drafting him in keeper or dynasty leagues.
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